Keith Browning Posted June 10, 2008 Share Posted June 10, 2008 I have been reading a lot of the news articles that now appear on the Diesel Mentor web site and have been following the price of fuel not to mention the countless stories of truckers going belly up. This is a world-wide issue that is hitting every country hard. Very hard. I couldn't help but wonder when, we are going seriously begin to feel the effects of the rise in energy costs professionally. Do you suppose we might see a drastic decline in truck sales in vocational trucks above and beyond the decline in personal use trucks? Is service work going to drastically decline? You cant help but wonder what permanent changes are going to take affect and younger guys in the business who intend to stay in the business for some time might want to watch the resulting technology bloom of alternative fuels and automotive technology. Electric? Hybrid? hydrogen? /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/shrug.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snw blue by you Posted June 10, 2008 Share Posted June 10, 2008 At 5.00 a gallon this will seperate the men from the boys. I think we will see a mass exodus from the personal use trucks much like what happened to the muscle cars of the '60s. I don't see many guys sticking with trucks that are getting 10 to 15 miles a gallon and cost 175.00 to fill but hey thats just my Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mekanik Posted June 10, 2008 Share Posted June 10, 2008 It is kind of scary to think about this. I'm lucky enough to be able to ride my bike to work. I'm sure more people will adapt to a different lifestyle where they use other forms of transportation and live closer to work, don't go on long road trips. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex Bruene Posted June 10, 2008 Share Posted June 10, 2008 I think that people are still going to need commercial vehicles to operate their business. They will just have to raise their prices to reflect their expenses. All the towing companies that we use have all raised their hook-up charges by $20. I've asked for a raise to offset the cost of living increase... I suspect that the "elected" folks are going to have to step in eventually and do something about it, or risk major economic fallout all over the board. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveS Posted June 10, 2008 Share Posted June 10, 2008 It would seem inevitable that there is lasting changes. I would expect that there will be fewer personal use Diesel pickups, and less use on the ones that are out there. Maybe the guy buys a beater car for his commuter and uses the pickup for hauling the toys and home projects on weekends. Many commercial use trucks will see less use as people spend more of their income on necessities; not only fuel but everything else is increasing as well. So they are less likely to buy that hot tub or have the remodel done or add to the landscaping. So the contractors that would be running the trucks to accomplish those jobs (I suspect) will be running fewer miles, resulting in less wear and maintenance on the trucks. The trucks should last longer if they are not being used as much and it seems likely that companies will have less income to buy new equipment. I noticed that with the latest round of fuel price increases the construction trucking (dumps, mostly) company across the street from us has had their truck sitting in the lot more than I've ever seen, a few days in the last couple weeks it appeared that none of the trucks left the yard all day. Here at our shop it seems like the phone is not ringing as much it used to and it is easier to get an appointment than usual. I hate to admit that I didn't see it coming, but now that I see it happening it does not look good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaysonfordtech Posted June 11, 2008 Share Posted June 11, 2008 I'm likely in the minority here, but I think this is the best thing that could happen to the country, even if it is not so good for our industry. Yes the use of trucks vs. cars will go back to the levels seen in the late seventies and early eighties. If we are lucky and the prices are sustained at this level we will be seeing some real efficiencies built into the transportation sector, and the economy generally. The cure for high oil prices is high oil prices. There will be today as there was in the past calls to invest in new technologies to substitute for oil based products, but hopefully we follow through this time. I suspect that the attraction of diesel engine technology will be killed by the demand for clean emissions. We have to make a choice between clean emissions or efficient engines, you can’t have both. My shop has slowed down by a considerable amount this year over last. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Warman Posted June 11, 2008 Share Posted June 11, 2008 We have seen a sharp downturn in bookings.... Where we used to be two weeks, we are now barely two days... Local GAS price is a buck thirty a litre ($4.92 per US gallon) diesel a few cents higher... I don't think fuel prices are the major driving factor in our downturn... Our ridiculous turn-around times have certainly done enough to piss people off... I don't have enough time to ensure quality control at a time when I need it the most.... and our spring has been very dry with no mud to help generate sales. But... when it costs well over a C note to fill your tank.... you don't drive as much and a lot of those "retail" concerns don't seem so bad when fuel costs are dipping into the maintenance budget... Isn't it ironic that I am still staying until 7:00PM and later "putting out fires" and some of my guys are starting to run out of work before days end.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brad Clayton Posted June 11, 2008 Share Posted June 11, 2008 My favorite FMC post was a reply to "how slow are you're shops".... "Shop opened at 8:00, got first call at 9:00 to cancel an appointment at 10:00" Our shop is in bad shape right now. But I must say the 6.0L is paying my bills right now. I love to hear the guys in the shop say they wont work on "coal burners" and being diesel certified is a loosing propositon ect. But when the times get lean they are standing around and I am working uhhmmmm. I am watching things very carefully for sure. It will be interesting to see how smooth the shift from trucks to cars for the mass public goes. I have already had to adjust my household budget twice this year, once for the increase in filling both my Explorers, and again for my home heating oil bill. I could be looking at a $5000 bill to heat my house this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveS Posted June 12, 2008 Share Posted June 12, 2008 I could be looking at a $5000 bill to heat my house this year.WOW! We have it pretty good here, there is a lot of hydro-electric power that is locally generated. My house is all electric and I suppliment with wood when the power goes out. I seem to get a few trees every winter that fall during storms, enough to feed my emergancy heat. However, there is a rumor that the local hydro plants are going to be bought by european (lower case "e" purposely) companies that will raise the prices to match the rest of the country. Great. On top of fuel prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveS Posted June 12, 2008 Share Posted June 12, 2008 I'm likely in the minority here, but I think this is the best thing that could happen to the country...I am curious about what you are driving. Not being judgemental, just wondering about your perspective and level of commitment to your beliefs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Browning Posted June 12, 2008 Author Share Posted June 12, 2008 Originally Posted By: jaysonfordtech I'm likely in the minority here, but I think this is the best thing that could happen to the country... I am curious about what you are driving. Not being judgmental, just wondering about your perspective and level of commitment to your beliefs. There are a lot of people who likely agree with Jayson's statement even though the cost of energy is hurting everyone now. The reason being that we Americans as a society are complacent about our position, globally, environmentally and financially. The last time we had energy problems of this magnitude was in the early 1970's and we did little to change our energy use ans sources other than driving smaller cars and a few bumper stickers. The Carter and Reagan administrations really let us down by not adopting policies and making laws that encouraged the use of nuclear energy, the development of new technologies that would bring forth alternative fuels, lighter cars, electric cars, hydrogen power cells and so on. Enter the liberals. We cant drill for oil anywhere. Corporations are taxed out the ass so we have forced many out of the country. The federal and state governments make a lot of money taxing fuel so why would they want more electric or hybrid or fuel cells on the road? I think (correct me if this is factually inaccurate)I heard that the U.S. uses 8 million barrels of oil a day and we have enough oil in Anwar, off the east cost and shale in the mid west to all bur guarantee oil independence from the middle east for 30 to 35 years but no, the liberals and the environmentalists wont let us touch it. Did you know that the Cinese are going to be drilling off of the shores of Cuba? 40miles from our coast but we cant drill? WTF? /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/shrug.gif It's not just a supply and demand issue, we need to educate ourselves and start by kicking the extremist and liberal jack-offs out of Washington. Drill for the oil, it should help bring fuel costs down and buy us some time to develop our technologies, build nuclear plants for cheap electricity and finally make a go for energy independence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex Bruene Posted June 12, 2008 Share Posted June 12, 2008 [we have enough oil in Anwar, off the east cost and shale in the mid west to all bur guarantee oil independence from the middle east for 30 to 35 years Hey, we have some of the biggest oil supplies in the world, but we choose to sell it to you guys and buy it back again... /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/banghead.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Browning Posted June 12, 2008 Author Share Posted June 12, 2008 Hey, we have some of the biggest oil supplies in the world, but we choose to sell it to you guys and buy it back again... /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/banghead.gif /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/hahaha.gif /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/banghead.gif Oil and fuel goes around in strange ways. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastendpowerstroke Posted June 13, 2008 Share Posted June 13, 2008 Originally Posted By: AlexBruene Hey, we have some of the biggest oil supplies in the world, but we choose to sell it to you guys and buy it back again... /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/banghead.gif /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/hahaha.gif /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/banghead.gif Oil and fuel goes around in strange ways. Next time you have about 1.5 hours sit down and watch this.. http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=3340274697167011147 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaysonfordtech Posted June 13, 2008 Share Posted June 13, 2008 2000 focus 2.0 dohc, and I car pool with 2 other techs for the 30ish mile commute to work. We rotate weeks of driving. My other rigs are a 2003 Taurus with a 3.0 2 valve, and a 1986 Ranger 2wd with a 2.9L. The wife drives the Taurus for her 7 mile round trip commute to work. My prior car was a 1992 escort with a 1.9l and a manual. That car was awesome on fuel. 39 mpg all the time. I got rid of it with 205,000 miles. I gave it to another tech I worked with. It’s still on the road with like 250,000 miles! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaysonfordtech Posted June 13, 2008 Share Posted June 13, 2008 I agree that the supply side of the equation must be addressed, but there are also many other big and small changes that could help. Imported ethanol from Brazil is taxed at about a buck a gallon to protect the corn farmers in Iowa, and the big AG companies that have set up the corn ethanol plants. The US federal government has mandated that ethanol be added to all gas sold in the US. This has driven up ethanol, and in turn corn prices. Getting rid of the ethanol tariff would do a great deal to lower that component cost of gas. We have to make a decision as a nation what is more important clean air or efficient vehicles. We have mandated emissions levels out of diesels that have choked a sizable portion of the efficiencies advantage out of them. On the gas side we have slowed the introduction of direct injected and turbocharged engines due to NOx regulations. The level of crash protection mandated also has added a great deal of weight to the vehicles, necessitating the use of larger engines to produce an acceptable level of performance. The decision by consumers to use large diesel powered trucks for commuter vehicles is asinine. I could go on for pages with things I consider good ideas, but the opinion of one mechanic does not make the world change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveS Posted June 13, 2008 Share Posted June 13, 2008 2000 focus 2.0 dohc, and I car pool with 2 other techs Fair enough! I marvel at people that expect everyone else to sacrafice while they justify their lifestyle ("Loggers should not cut the trees; how do you like my new deck?"), but you are walking the walk. I genuinely hope that there is some good that comes of this but it sure seems like the a lot of people will get hurt by the economy tanking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Warman Posted June 13, 2008 Share Posted June 13, 2008 Originally Posted By: jaysonfordtech 2000 focus 2.0 dohc, and I car pool with 2 other techs Fair enough! I marvel at people that expect everyone else to sacrafice while they justify their lifestyle ("Loggers should not cut the trees; how do you like my new deck?"), but you are walking the walk. I genuinely hope that there is some good that comes of this but it sure seems like the a lot of people will get hurt by the economy tanking. I am one that will drive the vehicle I want to drive... If my fuel costs are higher than someone elses... Oh, well.... am doing what I want and I can still afford to do it... Look at it this way.... and we are going to look at my pants.... My pants of choice are Levi 619s.. I have no understanding as to why other than they kinda fit and they feel good. If I come to your wedding, I will be wearing 619s.. If I come to your funeral - I will be wearing 619s... I'm a self centered, egostistical bastard.... I can't take it with me... and if anyone is going to squander it, it will be me and not my kid... (but... he is spoiled beyond belief). My SuperCrew isn't quite what I wanted... but the deal was too good to pass up and the little bit of pain I endure towing my holiday trailer is long forgotten by September. For my wife, I chose a V6 Mustang convertible... For getting groceries and going to the coffee clache, a Focus might have been a better choice... Cheaper and better mileage... But why would I do that to myself... That would be like buying a pair of ill-fitting, uncomfortable pants and subjecting myself to interminable periods of "being uncomfortable"... It is "different streaks for different freaks"... but there's not a lot of things that sours my gut as much as a tech driving a "cream puff". If you are driving a junker.... and especially, if you are extolling the virtues of this POS... What message is that sending to your customer? "Forget that new shit.... buy a clinker and I can spend my time doing "this is only a guess so I'll book less time on it..." rather than trying to make sure I did FIRTFTOT. Don't get me wrong... if you feel you are worth treating yourself like shit - be my guest. Me? I have my family members driving the cars I own.... I "overservice" and I "overmaintain".... I am not about to have one of my loved ones stranded alongside the road.... Funny thing.... I have a six year old truck, a nearly four year old car and a five year old scooter... And I still think that an "unexpected" breakdown is a sin.... We are what we project... If we wait for Mother Nature to provide rain to "wash" our car... If it doesn't "sound" quite right.... If we are seen to have a "prestart ritual"... We will send a powerful message to our customers... the first one is that "I am happy with a piece of shit - you should be too". And then.... our wonderful little gas sipper is dead in front of the grocers.... Even the richest people have to go grocery shopping... and one or two of these fine people happen to see you working up a sweat trying to get "old Nelly" to give up those last few miles... to get your ice cream home and in the freezer before it melts.... And these one or two fine customers will be thinking "Gee... this is the guy that worked on the last three trucks that got towed in to the dealer.... This is a powerful message, indeed.... and it ain't a good one. If you haven't noticed - this trade is held very low in public esteem.. we aren't to be trusted... News shows feel driven to "rig" cars and take them to shops just so that they can prove we are charlatans and thieves.... We are going to sell a customer on preventive maintenance - and then brag about spending nothing on a car for over 200,000 whatevers.... GIVE YOUR FUCKING HEAD A SHAKE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Browning Posted June 13, 2008 Author Share Posted June 13, 2008 /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/rotz.gif Jim Jim Jim Jim... I keep "newer" cars in my stable for the very reason that they are more reliable than an old clunker that my customers might not see me stranded on the side of the road in... or more importantly my family. I really have no desire to be spending time and money fixing my rides - maintaining is one thing - small repairs okay. If my neighbors and customers saw me at the market with a broken down vehicle they would more than likely be thinking I wasn't a very good technician if MY car was down, but, I am not sure what they would actually see with their noses in the air. Aside from that I INSIST that my Queen and the two Princesses (7 & 2) have their fannies cradled in comfort and safety in a new and appropriate vehicle... all while sipping cold juice and watching Dora The Explorer. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/cool.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skidonenko Posted June 13, 2008 Share Posted June 13, 2008 I had a long reply typed but then I remeber I do not really care what other people think about what I drive/do. My only unexpected creampuff dying was self induced from not filtering the peanut oil enough. People with their nose that much in the air can lick their testicle of choice Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaysonfordtech Posted June 13, 2008 Share Posted June 13, 2008 Quote: We are going to sell a customer on preventive maintenance - and then brag about spending nothing on a car for over 200,000 whatevers.... Actually Jim I wish people would keep their rigs for 200000 whatevers and maintain them like I did that escort. Due to the long commute I had at that time I was servicing the car every 3 and a half weeks. As for peoples choices and the high price of fuel, the best part is that my opinion or anyone elses will not be the factor that canges peoples minds, it will be Adam Smiths invisible hand. Incentives matter. I am all for personal liberties. If someone wants to drive a 6.4l superduty for a delivery truck, I am all for that so long as they pay the cost of doing so. I might laugh at them when I see them drop $150 in the fuel tank, but I am not about to try to take away that choice. Nice rant though, lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Browning Posted June 13, 2008 Author Share Posted June 13, 2008 People with their nose that much in the air can lick their testicle of choice Amen brother Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Warman Posted June 14, 2008 Share Posted June 14, 2008 /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/rotz.gif Jim Jim Jim Jim... I keep "newer" cars in my stable for the very reason that they are more reliable than an old clunker that my customers might not see me stranded on the side of the road in... or more importantly my family. I really have no desire to be spending time and money fixing my rides - maintaining is one thing - small repairs okay. If my neighbors and customers saw me at the market with a broken down vehicle they would more than likely be thinking I wasn't a very good technician if MY car was down, but, I am not sure what they would actually see with their noses in the air. Aside from that I INSIST that my Queen and the two Princesses (7 & 2) have their fannies cradled in comfort and safety in a new and appropriate vehicle... all while sipping cold juice and watching Dora The Explorer. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/cool.gif I might be way out in left field but my rose coloured view of the universe would be for anyone to showcase his chosen career in his daily life.... the shoemaker would wear the finest cowboy boot he could make (well, mine would)... his dress boots would have you step on a quarter and be able to tell if it was "heads or tails". His work boots would fit well and last a long, long time on concrete floors. You would never, ever see your butchers car in the McDonalds drive-thru.... Lawyers would stop chasing ambulances and simply buy their own fleet of them... They could offer cut-rate "scoop and scoots" to entice customers.. And every last tech would drive "something" where the attrition of sacrificial parts has been considered... He would be like us.... Going on a very long trip? We could send all of our time packing a nice lunch because we know the chariot is in the best of shape.... But I came home last night... My neighbours Dad was over visiting... being the neighbourly sort, I wandered over... Dad asks what he should do with his oil change..... He has over 5000 kms on it, but the last tech he visited said his oil looked too "clean".... "Don't change it for a while" he was told (in an authoritative voice). How many of you guys work with techs that pick through your old parts? The ones in "limbo" waiting to see if the customer wants them back or not? The ones that ask if you can tell them if you are going to throw <that> out.... Shit... techs can run a car on nothing... surely a customer can too... Yes I have a narrow view of the world.... I always say I was born 100 years to late.... Sometimes I wonder if I wasn't born 100 years to soon.... The typos are gratuitously offered to the sharks.... enjoy them while you can. /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/grin.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keith Browning Posted June 14, 2008 Author Share Posted June 14, 2008 So would it please you if I drove a 7,000 lb pickup with an insatiable appetite for fuel just because no matter what year or mileage and condition I can keep it running like a top simply to advertise my expertise and vocation? Then I can look like an asshole just like the other north Jersey assholes driving $65,000 diesel pick-ups with no cargo, trailer hitch or passengers for that matter? Will it score me some points if I disclose that my 2001 5.0L AWD Explorer gets 13 MPG has rusty bumpers, nerf bars and tailgate? It has yet to strand me and it makes me yell "YEEEE HAAAA" when I smash my right foot down! /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/grin.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Warman Posted June 14, 2008 Share Posted June 14, 2008 So would it please you if I drove a 7,000 lb pickup with an insatiable appetite for fuel just because no matter what year or mileage and condition I can keep it running like a top simply to advertise my expertise and vocation? Then I can look like an asshole just like the other north Jersey assholes driving $65,000 diesel pick-ups with no cargo, trailer hitch or passengers for that matter? Will it score me some points if I disclose that my 2001 5.0L AWD Explorer gets 13 MPG has rusty bumpers, nerf bars and tailgate? It has yet to strand me and it makes me yell "YEEEE HAAAA" when I smash my right foot down! /forums/images/%%GRAEMLIN_URL%%/grin.gif What the fuck did I say that rubbed you the wrong way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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